利率市場化對貨幣政策有效性和經(jīng)濟結構調整的影響

摘要： 本文通過構建、校準和模擬Stockman(1981)現(xiàn)金先行動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE),解釋、分析和預測利率完全放開后,名義存款利率上升對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟及宏觀經(jīng)濟結構所產生的影響。模型的穩(wěn)態(tài)方程、脈沖響應和數(shù)值模擬分析結果表明,名義存款利率上升通過提高存款實際利率和企業(yè)資本邊際成本將有效抑制投資和資本存量增長,提升消費占GDP比重,從而有利于改善經(jīng)濟結構并促進經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展;在面對外部沖擊時,利率上升可以減少宏觀經(jīng)濟波動;貨幣政策沖擊對實體經(jīng)濟影響的持續(xù)性增強,貨幣政策利率傳導渠道更加通暢;利率上升將抑制投資并對宏觀經(jīng)濟帶來負面沖擊的擔心,并沒有得到模型的支持。本文認為,今后應堅定不移地穩(wěn)步推進利率市場化改革。
By building,calibrating and simulating a DSGE model based on Stockman( 1981) Cash in Advance ( CIA) ,we explain,analysis and predict the macro-economy and economic structure outcomes of interest rate liberalization in China. The model’s steady state,impulse responses and simulation results show that higher real deposit rate and capital marginal cost will suppress investment and capital stock growth, increase the consumption ratio in GDP, which improves the economic structure and promote sustainable development; increasing interest rate can offset fluctuation facing shocks; the persistence of real economy to the reaction of monetary policy enhances,which means a better interest rate channel. We won’t worry about the negative effects on investments and economy as the model shows. We should steadily promote the interest rate liberalization reform,update traditional development concepts,promote capital efficiency and consumption role in economic growth with the interest rate liberalization, strengthen the price lever in monetary policy and realize a sustainable healthy development of China’s economy.