擴(kuò)大服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)外開放能產(chǎn)生“制度紅利”嗎?——以北京市為例

摘要： 利用全國31個(gè)省級(jí)區(qū)域的GDP增長率數(shù)據(jù),采用面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸合成評(píng)估方法,對(duì)北京服務(wù)業(yè)擴(kuò)大開放綜合試點(diǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,回答擴(kuò)大服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)外開放是否能產(chǎn)生制度紅利的問題。研究結(jié)果表明:服務(wù)業(yè)擴(kuò)大開放綜合試點(diǎn)對(duì)北京經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有顯著的促進(jìn)效應(yīng),而且促進(jìn)效應(yīng)具有長期性,這一結(jié)論經(jīng)過多項(xiàng)穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)后仍然成立。因此可以認(rèn)為擴(kuò)大服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)外開放能夠產(chǎn)生制度紅利。
In order to answer the question of whether expanding the opening-up of service industry can generate institutional bonus, Beijing was taken as an example, The study uses data of GDP growth ratio of 31 provinces in China and the panel data regression synthetic evaluation method proposed by Hsiao et al(2012) to evaluate the economic effect of the comprehensive pilot project of the opening-up of Beijing's service industry. The result indicates that the comprehensive pilot project has a significant promoting effect on Beijing's economic growth and the promoting effect could be available for long run. This result still is right after robustness tests. Therefore, it is believed that expanding the opening-up of service industry could generate institutional bonus.