多部門經(jīng)濟、異質性市場結構與貨幣政策——基于包含服務部門的動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型

摘要： 服務部門的快速發(fā)展是中國經(jīng)濟的一個重要現(xiàn)實特征?；谶@一事實,構建包含定制型服務、商業(yè)服務與規(guī)?；盏膭討B(tài)隨機一般均衡模型,并基于這一模型考察了貨幣政策的動態(tài)效應以及最優(yōu)貨幣政策的特征。研究表明:擴張性貨幣政策提高了各類服務部門產(chǎn)出以及各部門通脹水平;考慮服務部門通脹的貨幣政策相對降低了產(chǎn)出并引起各部門通脹、工資膨脹更大幅度上升;最優(yōu)貨幣政策則要求貨幣政策盯住目標考慮工資膨脹。在此基礎上,進一步考察了將工資膨脹考慮在內(nèi)的拓展型泰勒規(guī)則的動態(tài)效應。結果顯示,相對基準政策機制而言,拓展型泰勒規(guī)則對于宏觀經(jīng)濟具有相對較好的穩(wěn)定效應,并顯著降低了貨幣政策引致的社會福利損失。
The rapid expansion of service sector is one of the important realistic characteristics of China's economy. Based on this fact, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including such sectors as customized service, business service and scale service, so as to investigate the dynamic effects of the monetary policy and the characteristics of the optimal monetary policy based on this model. The results show that: the expansionary monetary policy has improved the level of output of the various service sectors and the inflation of each section; the monetary policy taking into considerations the inflations of the service sector has reduced the output and caused inflations of each section and large scale increase of wage expansion; the optimal monetary policy requires the monetary policy to keep a close watch on the targets and consider the wage expansion. On such a basis, it further analyzes the dynamic effects of the extended Taylor rule which takes into consideration the wage expansion. The findings reveal that, compared with the standard policy mechanism, the extended Taylor rule plays a much better role in stabilizing the macro economy; and it can significantly reduce the social welfare losses caused by monetary policy.